Market Analysis of Various Ferroalloys in 2021

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The ferroalloys in a broad sense refer to a product that is added to molten iron as deoxidizers, element additives, etc. during steelmaking to make steel have certain characteristics or meet certain requirements. In the steel industry, all intermediate alloys used in steelmaking, such as silicon-manganese alloys, ferrosilicon alloys, and ferrochromium alloys, can be collectively referred to as ferroalloys.

There are many types of ferroalloys, and one may ask the most important ferro alloy metal is? Simply saying that a certain ferro alloy metal is the most important is one-sided. This requires synthesizing the pillar industries of each country, combining the main alloy types required by the industry, and then determining the most important ferro alloy metal required by the specific industry in the country. The following is a review and prospect of the ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese industry chain combined with the import volume and export volume of various ferroalloy markets in 2021.

Ferrosilicon Market

1. Ferrosilicon Production

From January to May 2021, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 2.5991 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 474100 tons, an increase of 22.31%. In the first half of 2021, the output of ferrosilicon has increased significantly. Driven by high profits, ferrosilicon enterprises are highly motivated to produce. Except for the limited power area, other main production areas are basically at full capacity, and downstream demand is strong. In the second half of the year, regional power outages will weaken, and ferrosilicon production will remain high.

Ferrosilicon production
Ferrosilicon production

2. Demand for ferrosilicon

According to statistics from professional institutions, on June 11, 2021, the demand for ferrosilicon of the five major steel types was 29,283.3 tons, an increase of 1,735.9 tons or 6.3% over the beginning of the year. The demand for ferrosilicon was at a low level in January and February this year, and has continued to rise since then, and is currently at a high level. The demand for ferrosilicon may decrease in the second half of the year, because the operating rate of steel mills may be affected by limited production in the second half of the year.

Demend for ferrosilicon
Demend for ferrosilicon

3. Import and export of ferrosilicon

From January to May 2021, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 191,100 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons or 24.65% over the same period last year. From January to May 2021, the cumulative import volume of ferrosilicon was 2,400 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 55.62% over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the export volume of ferrosilicon increased. Due to the high output of ferrosilicon in my country in the first half of the year, some shares were provided for export, but the overall level was still lower than the export volume in 2018 (the highest level in recent years). In the first half of the year, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased, and the overall import level was very low.

Import of ferrosilicon
Import of ferrosilicon
Export of ferrosilicon
Export of ferrosilicon

Silicon Manganese Market

1. Silicon manganese production

From January to May 2021, the cumulative output of silicon manganese was 4.4736 million tons, an increase of 462,400 tons or 11.53% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the output of silicon manganese was significantly higher than that of the same period last year. In the second half of the year, the output of silicon manganese will continue to increase, and after the summer, the electricity consumption restriction for the ferroalloy industry will be weakened.

Silicon manganese production
Silicon manganese production

2. Silicon manganese demand

According to statistics from professional institutions, on June 25, 2021, the demand for silicon manganese from the five major steel types was 169,063 tons, an increase of 10,528 tons or 0.7% over the beginning of the year. In the first half of this year, the demand for silicon-manganese is gradually increasing, and the current demand is at a high level. In the second half of the year, the demand for silicon manganese may decrease, because the operating rate of steel mills may be affected by limited production in the second half of the year.

Silicon manganese demand
Silicon manganese demand

Summary and Outlook

In the first half of 2021, the ferrosilicon futures market showed an upward trend, and the manganese silicon futures market showed an upward trend, but the trend was repeated. In the first half of the year, the ferrosilicon manganese silicon industry was affected by the dual control of power consumption. However, due to the regional nature of power curtailment, driven by high profits, there was no power curtailment area for the time being. High-load production, so the output did not show a continuous decrease. The downstream crude steel output is high, and the demand for ferroalloy is strong. Due to the good downstream demand and the limited power supply on the supply side, the inventory level of ferrosilicon and manganese shows a decreasing trend. In the first half of the year, the supply and demand of the ferrosilicon manganese market showed a tight balance.

In the second half of 2021, the power consumption restrictions of the ferrosilicon manganese industry will be weakened. After the peak electricity season in summer, the off-peak production will end, and the power consumption restrictions for high-energy-consuming enterprises will be lifted, and the supply will remain high or slightly. There is an increase. Due to the influence of “carbon neutrality”, and the crude steel output in the first half of the year was significantly higher than the level in recent years, the crude steel output in the second half of the year will decrease, and the demand for raw materials will also decrease. The supply-side increases and the demand side decreases, and the inventory will increase. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of the ferrosilicon manganese market will turn to a loose pattern.

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