As an important alloy product in the ferroalloy industry, the market price of metallic silicon (industrial silicon) in 2024 has fluctuated and declined. This article mainly follows Zhenxin Metallurgy to review the overall price trend and export situation of metallic silicon in 2024, taking silicon metal 441 as an example, and based on the overall market analysis in 2024, the forecast and analysis of metallic silicon in the Chinese market in 2025.
Overall market analysis of metal silicon in 2024
Market situation of metallic silicon price in the first half of 2024
First quarter: The price of metallic silicon in the first quarter (January-March) showed a continuous downward trend, and the grades of metallic silicon 553, metallic silicon 441, and metallic silicon 1101 fell from 14,900-16,000 yuan/ton to 13,400-14,500 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.4%-10.5%. Although there was a reduction in production in various regions across the country before the Spring Festival, the output was affected ，and the price increase trend was still not obvious.
Second quarter: At the beginning of the second quarter (April-June), the downward trend of silicon metal prices was controlled. Some factories stopped production and waited and watched. In addition, the traders stockpiled goods, and the price of silicon metal increased to a certain extent. In May, silicon factories in Sichuan resumed work , and the output increased. In June, the Sichuan-Yunnan region continued to resume work and production, resulting in an oversupply of silicon metal, and the price fell again. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon fell from 13,300-14,500 yuan/ton to 12,200-13,800 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.8-8.3%.
Market situation of metal silicon price in the second half of 2024
Third: In July, the price of metal silicon continued to fall, causing some small silicon plants to stop production, but the supply and demand relationship was unbalanced and the price did not rebound. After the spot inventory was cleared in August, some customers placed orders one after another, and the factory order volume increased, causing the price of metal silicon to increase by 500 yuan/ton continuously. The purchasing market began to be active. After a slight increase in the price of industrial silicon in September, it remained stable. The grades of metal silicon 3303, 2202, etc. fell from 12200-13800 yuan/ton to 11200-12700 yuan/ton, a drop of 8.0-8.2%.
: In October, the price of metal silicon increased slightly. The southern silicon plant was about to stop production and was unwilling to sell at a low price, and the north was unwilling to give in. In November, although the prices of some metal silicon grades were stable and a large factory in the north stopped production, the price did not increase. In December, the spot market for silicon metal prices was quiet, and factory inventories were piling up, causing major factories to start offering discounts. Industrial silicon of various grades fell from 11,200-12,700 yuan/ton to 11,000-12,500 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.6-1.8%.
Overall Chinese silicon metal exports in 2024
The estimated export volume in December was 65,000 tons, and the total export volume for the whole year was about 732,000 tons, an increase of 159,000 tons compared with 2023, an increase of 27.75%, accounting for 14.97% of domestic silicon metal production, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year. It is expected that the proportion of domestic consumption of silicon metal in my country in 2025 will decrease compared with 2024, and the proportion of silicon metal exports will remain around 14%.
Market Outlook for Metal Silicon Prices in 2025
Costs
1. Electricity costs. Currently, the electricity price for metal silicon production in various regions is between 0.32-0.70 yuan/kWh. Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are the main production areas, and the fluctuation of electricity prices is of great concern. With the reform of electricity, preferential electricity prices in some regions have been cancelled, and the State Grid electricity price may be uniformly implemented in the later period. It is expected that the electricity cost for metal silicon production in various parts of the country will rise slightly in 2025.
2. The cost of main materials. The price of silicate does not fluctuate significantly throughout the year, and the difference between high and low quality ranges from 200 to 300 yuan. However, high-quality resources are still scarce, and it is difficult for prices to fall in the future. If the enthusiasm of silicon factories to start construction is not high in 2025 due to the market situation, the market price of raw materials is expected to fall slightly.
Supply and demand
In 2024, the annual output of silicon products will be 4,891,810 tons. It is estimated that the output of metallic silicon will increase to about 5.2 million tons in 2025. If the demand for terminal consumption is not high, there will still be more serious overcapacity and high inventory next year.
Price
This year, the price range of metal silicon in Tianjin Port fluctuates between 11,000-16,000 yuan/ton, and the price moves downward. The period between 11,000-13,000 yuan/ton is relatively long. The ex-factory cost in the main production area is between 10,500-14,000 yuan/ton. In 2024, polysilicon enterprises will reduce production, and there is no possibility of large-scale concentrated resumption of work in 2025. In addition, some integrated industrial silicon furnaces will continue to be put into production in 2025. The market situation is not optimistic. In the absence of emergencies in the industry and related favorable policies, it is expected that the price of industrial silicon will remain at a low level in 2025. It is expected that the market price of industrial silicon will fluctuate between 10,500-14,000 yuan/ton in 2025.
