After the Spring Festival, the price trend of ferrochrome market showed a short-term rise but long-term uncertainty. The specific analysis is as follows：
Ferrochrome Short-term trend：The price rise trend is obvious
1）Cost-driven: After the Spring Festival, the price of chrome ore rose strongly, the spot transaction price of South African powder increased significantly, and the futures price also rose. The cost of purchasing chrome ore for ferrochrome plants increased. At the same time, although the price of coke fluctuated, the comprehensive production cost of high-carbon ferrochrome continued to move up under the condition of a sharp increase in chrome ore prices, pushing up the price of ferrochrome. As of February 10, the retail price in the Inner Mongolia market had risen to 7400-7500 yuan/50 base tons, and the mainstream ex-factory price of high carbon ferrochrome in mid-February was 7500-7700 yuan/50 base tons.
2）Tight supply: Before the Spring Festival, high carbon ferrochrome production enterprises suffered heavy losses, and the pace of resumption of production after the festival was slow. In addition, there were fewer working days in February. It is expected that the output of high-carbon ferrochrome in February will still decline significantly, and the reduction in supply will provide strong support for prices.
3）Increased demand: Stainless steel maintenance was gradually completed after the holiday. In February, the crude stainless steel production increased by 9.94% month-on-month. The demand for ferrochrome increased, driving up the price of ferrochrome.
Ferrochrome Medium-term trend
1）The market is in a wait-and-see mood: As the bidding and procurement period of mainstream stainless steel plants in March approaches, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the high-carbon ferrochrome market is becoming increasingly strong, and downstream purchasing activities have slowed down significantly. The market is waiting for the determination of the steel bidding price in March to guide the subsequent trend.
2）Prices may rise but the increase is limited: On the one hand, the rise in chromium ore prices has greatly increased the production cost of high chromium, and factories have a strong willingness to support prices.
On the other hand, the bidding and procurement prices of high-carbon ferrochrome by Taigang and Tsingshan Group in February remained flat month-on-month, which has strengthened the confidence of manufacturers to support prices.
It is expected that the domestic mainstream high-chromium steel bidding prices in March may see the first round of increases after falling for half a year.
However, due to the high inventory of raw materials in large stainless steel plants and limited acceptance of high-priced ferrochrome, the upward resistance of mainstream steel bidding prices in March is relatively large, and the increase may not be as high as market expectations.
Ferrochrome Long-term trend
There are many uncertainties: If the global economy recovers well, emerging industries such as aerospace, gas turbines, and humanoid robots will develop rapidly, which will increase the demand for ferrochrome and push up prices. However, if the macroeconomic situation is worse than expected, the demand for stainless steel and other downstream industries shrinks, or the resumption of production of ferrochrome producers exceeds expectations, supply will increase significantly, and ferrochrome prices may face downward pressure.
