As an important iron alloy material, ferronickel plays a vital role in steelmaking. Ferronickel is generally used in stainless steel production, batteries and the aerospace industry. Similar to ferronickel, there are ferroniobium, ferrovanadium, and ferromolybdenum. These are precious alloys and play an important role in steelmaking. In this article, Zhenxin Metallurgy will introduce the price situation of ferronickel in the Chinese market in 2024 and the price trend of ferronickel in 2025.
Overall trend of ferronickel prices in 2024
The price of ferronickel in 2024 will decrease compared with the same period in 2023, and the price will show a “stable-downward” trend.
The circulating volume of ferronickel in 2024 has increased significantly compared with last year, and price support has weakened. In addition, the price of 200 series stainless steel has dropped compared with last year, and the price of raw material purchase intention of steel mills has also dropped, so the price of ferronickel is not as good as last year.
During the year, the price of high-grade Ferronickel showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the overall price falling year-on-year. In January, the price of stainless steel rose. In addition, steel mills were preparing for the Spring Festival, and procurement was more active. The price of high-content ferronickel rose. February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, steel mill purchases are relatively deserted, and high ferronickel prices remain stable. From the end of February to the beginning of March, the approval of Indonesian nickel ore quotas was less than expected.
The supply of Indonesian nickel ores was tight, the premium continued to rise, and the cost of Indonesian iron increased. At the same time, due to quota issues affecting the shipment of products from some Indonesian factories, suppliers actively raised prices, and high ferronickel prices strengthened. . From early March to early April, premiums for Indonesian nickel mines continued to remain high, while stainless steel prices weakened, steel mills strongly pushed down raw material prices, and high-ferronickel prices fell back.
China’s ferronickel price analysis in 2024
1. Domestic ferronickel
According to our understanding, a new technology is being tested in a factory in Guangxi, but whether the new technology is successful or not will still take time. With the price of high-ferronickel at a low level, there is great pressure to put domestic high-ferronickel production capacity into production. It is expected that domestic high-ferronickel production capacity will be put into operation in 2025. No new high-ferronickel production capacity has been put into production.
The renovation of a high-ferronickel furnace in an integrated factory in Guangxi is expected to be completed by the end of January. After the transformation is completed, low-ferronickel will be produced. Domestic low-ferronickel production is likely to increase in 2025.
Domestic ferronickel production is expected to be 346,000 metal tons in 2025, an increase of 6,000 metal tons, or 2%, compared with 2024, of which high-ferronickel production is 252,000 metal tons, an increase of 0.06 million metal tons, or 0.03% year-on-year, and low-ferronickel production. 94,000 metal tons, an increase of 5,000 metal tons year-on-year, an increase of 6%.
According to Indonesian news, 246 million wet tons of nickel ore quotas have been approved and issued in 2025. Although the Indonesian government has repeatedly mentioned restrictions on ferronickel production and quota approval, there has been no substantial progress. In addition, Indonesian factories can purchase Philippine nickel ore as In addition, it is expected that the supply of nickel ore will be sufficient in the first half of 2025 to support the commissioning of new high-ferronickel production capacity. At present, high-ferronickel in several major self-owned power plant parks in Indonesia is still profitable, and there is still enthusiasm for the commissioning of factories.
According to statistics from the website, 7 ferronickel projects in Indonesia will be put into production in 2025, involving 36 furnaces to be put into production. It is expected that 14 furnaces will be put into production in 2025, involving an annual production capacity of 196,000 metal tons. Indonesia’s high-ferronickel output is expected to be 1.73 million metal tons in 2025, an increase of 180,000 metal tons compared with 2024, an increase of approximately 12%.
Market forecast of ferronickel from China market 2025
In 2025, the output of low-ferronickel from a steel plant in Guangxi will increase, the amount of outsourced purchases will decrease, and the demand for tradable low-ferronickel will decrease. The price of low-ferronickel is expected to fluctuate between 3,600-3,900 yuan/ton (ex-factory tax included).
In 2025, domestic 300 series row production will remain at a high level. Coupled with the increase in overseas demand for ferronickel, the demand for high-grade ferronickel will be strong. Indonesia’s new ferronickel production capacity will continue to be put into production in 2025, and the overall supply of high-grade ferronickel will continue to remain at a high level. It is expected to be high in 2025 There is a slight excess supply of ferronickel, and the overall price upward space is limited. Affected by factors such as nickel ore quotas, the downward space is also relatively limited. It is expected that the price of high-grade ferronickel in 2025 will be between 930-1030 yuan/nickel (tax included at the factory). fluctuation.
