In the first half of 2023, the overall trend of cored wire will be stable and weak, with the main price decline period being from April to May.
During January, the factory mainly focused on long-term orders for year-end closing and early delivery, with few new orders, so the factory quotations were stable. In February, the price of metallic calcium products fell significantly.
The price of downstream metallic calcium-based cored wires was also lowered in line with the market. In March Calcium product prices increased, and metallic calcium cored wires consolidated slightly upward. In the second quarter, the price of cold-rolled strip steel first weakened and then strengthened. Since the overall increase or decrease was not large, it had little impact on cored wire products.
The main factors restraining its downward trend were firstly the decline in raw material calcium silicon and metallic calcium products, and secondly the price reduction by steel mills. Obviously, the third reason is that as the market demand shrinks, competition in the cored wire industry is fierce, and low-priced supplies are emerging in an endless stream, mostly occupying the market with price advantages.
The average operating rate of the cored wire market from January to June 2023 is approximately 84.14%, and the total output is approximately 129,057 tons.
Alloy Cored Wire Production Data in China 2023 Jan-June
|21690 Mt||19242 Mt||21820 Mt||21990 Mt||22350 Mt||21965 Mt|
Alloy Cored Wire Price in the First Half of 2023
Alloy cored wire price in the first quarter of 2023
Although the raw material side fluctuated greatly, downstream cored wire processing companies did not have high intention to adjust prices. First, due to the cored wire price during the mid-to-early period Most factories are finishing work before the year, and new orders are sporadic, so the quotations are not adjusted accordingly. Secondly, the resumption of work of cored wire companies is slow after the Spring Festival, and downstream steel companies have sufficient stocks for the year and do not have large-scale purchase plans. Supported by a large number of orders, the quotations of cored wire factories are also mostly consistent with those of the previous year.
In February, calcium metal-based cored wire and spheroidized cored wire declined significantly compared with other wire types, mainly affected by the downward trend of raw materials. Steel companies had sufficient stocks before the year, so in February, they mainly consumed early inventory. The sales of cored wires were not large, and the output was not as good as in previous months.
In March, the price of raw material cold-rolled strip steel changed frequently, and the calcium metal wire rose slightly, which pushed up the price of downstream calcium metal cored wire, while the magnesium metal and calcium silicon alloy continued to weaken, making the corresponding calcium silicon cored wire downstream And the cost of spheroidized core-spun wire has been reduced, and the quotation has also been reduced accordingly. From the demand side, the transaction situation in the cored wire market is relatively flat. Compared with metallic calcium cored wires, the consumption of calcium silicon cored wires by steel mills has decreased significantly. Enterprises are suffering and are considering putting into production other types of wires to maintain business normality. Operations.
Alloy cored wire price in the second quarter of 2023
In April, the price of cold-rolled strip steel continued to weaken, with a large drop. As one of the main raw materials for cored wire, the continuous decline has a constraint on the cost of cored wire, and the factory quotations of mainstream wire types have slightly loosened. The price of raw material magnesium ingots has risen and fallen sharply. Downstream spheroidized cored wire factories are cautiously watching and hesitating in quoting prices. However, the overall raw material cost has increased compared to the beginning of the month. From the perspective of terminal demand, steel prices continue to weaken, steel plants have more maintenance and production cuts, and the demand for cored wires has shrunk significantly. Similarly, the demand performance of foundry companies is also relatively flat. Therefore, spheroidized cored wires and inoculant cored wires Transactions are also relatively sluggish.
In May, the raw material cold-rolled strip steel continued its downward trend, so the overall cored wire price also adjusted slightly downward. In addition to weak cost support, demand this month is even weaker than in previous months. There are few scattered orders in the market, and factories are mainly steel mill orders. However, with steel mills suspending production and reducing production in large areas, the progress of cored wire procurement has slowed down, and procurement The quantity has also been reduced, and the price reduction of cored wire has increased.
In June, the price of cold-rolled strip steel, the main raw material for cored wire, increased slightly. The remaining raw materials, calcium metal and calcium silicon, did not change significantly. Therefore, the downstream calcium silicon cored wire and calcium metal cored wire operated stably, while the price of magnesium metal It first declined and then rose, with a large amplitude. The downstream spheroidized core-spun wire factories were cautious in their bids and mostly maintained the single-discussion mode. From the perspective of demand, foundries and steel mills are both in a weak position and the consumption of cored wire products has been reduced to varying degrees. This has led to fierce competition within cored wire companies and many factories are operating under pressure.
Alloy Cored Wire Market Outlook in the Second Half of 2023
Looking back from January to June 2023, the overall trend of cored wire will be as follows. Since the beginning of this year, the market recovery has been slower than expected, downstream consumption power is weak, and the construction of real estate and related supporting facilities has stagnated, making it difficult to sell steel products, thus constraining the shipments of upstream cored wire products. On the other hand, the demand is sluggish, and the phenomenon of profit-for-profit shipments in the market has increased. The internal competition among cored wire companies is fierce, and external price suppression has made the cored wire market operate at a low profit. Some factories are willing to ship at a loss to maintain relationships with old customers. .
Judging from the current core wire raw material market, calcium silicon and metallic calcium products have fallen close to the cost line, and the room for price decline is narrow. It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as calcium silicon and metallic calcium will remain stable in a short period of time, and cold-rolled strips Steel prices first weakened and then strengthened, but demand for steel products was poor and prices continued to rise or lacked support. It is expected that prices will be strong and consolidate in the short term, and the long-term upward trend may not be large. Therefore, there is no room for large fluctuations in raw material costs in the short term. It is expected that cored wire prices will continue to be stable in the second half of the year, and there may be a possibility of narrow and weak consolidation under the pull of weak demand.